A 51.4 reading at 9 A.M. this morning confirming softening economic conditions in the U.S. economy has triggered a lift off trading range lows at 16828 as our fed is viewed as handcuffed again by the real world. It’s the worst reading since 2010 which is a serious miss considering the manufacturing sector also missed last week. The number is subject to seasonal issues with the typical end of summer slowdowns so the stock market appears to be taking that track and is only down marginally. Anyways the poor number indicates a likely GDP around 1% and obviously the stock market for now doesn’t fear a serious round of fed tightening with that drop back. Therefore unless stocks can seriously break down I’d expect bonds to be hemmed in at top of range near 17116. Later this week the PMI services index will be watched for confirmation. There are fed members speaking during the week but since the fed data dependent economic releases remain more important. Also getting a boost this morning is the gold market and most major currencies against the dollar taking their cue from the same weak ISM report.
Series 3 Licensed
Senior Market Strategist
Jim began his career back in January of 1976 at the Mid America Commodity Exchange, trading grains. He moved over to the Chicago Board of Trade in 1980 and started spread trading the then-new Treasury bond contract. Jim remained a local on the CBOT floor over the next 12 years, alternating between the soybean and bond pits. In the early 1990s he made the tough decision to move off the floor in order to build a brokerage business. In 1995 he joined Lind-Waldock. Many of his earliest clients remain active traders and those longer-term relationships are the best aspect of the job. Jim holds a BA in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.