Corn Futures Sizzle after Export Data

September 9, 2016 6:11AM CDT

Corn futures prices fizzled, then sizzled after the USDA’s Export Sales report revealed higher-than-expected yields, and ahead of Monday’s supply and demand data for the grains sector of commodities futures markets.

The December contract in corn futures was last up .15 percent at 339 a bushel and fluctuated around that price point for most of the morning. Late in the commodities futures trading session on Thursday, corn futures rallied as it came in higher in the overnight electronic session and sold off and traded lower early in the day. Some analysts say the rally was due to short-covering during the session.

Analysts say rain and cooler temperatures forecasted for Friday night and moving into next week could incite another rally heading into the weekend as cool wet weather is not conducive to the crop at this stage of the season.

In Friday’s USDA Export Sales Report, corn yielded 1.123 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 500,000-1.10 mmt. The reaction in corn futures prices was muted, as commodities markets participants await Monday’s USDA Supply and Demand report.

Analysts have mixed ideas of what to expect out of the USDA’s September corn yield estimate. Forecasts are for a range of 171–175.6, with an average estimate of 173.4.

Meanwhile, the remainder of commodities futures markets sectors remain on interest-rate watch, as more Federal Reserve officials vocally support a near-futures hike. The latest comes from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who said if the U.S. central bank waits too much longer, a gradual policy tightening is likely appropriate.

In the U.S. economic calendar, today’s Wholesale Inventories report was unchanged in July, after a 0.3 percent increase in June, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Economists had expected the data to inch up 0.1 percent.

Next week’s data of importance to the commodities futures markets is much heavier than the current week, and includes August Import and Export Prices on Wednesday. Thursday’s calendar is full of reports: Retail Sales for August, the Producer Price Index and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization reports for the same month, the Philadelphia Fed Index for September, and Business Inventories for July. Friday brings the Consumer Price Index for the month of August and Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September.

Corn Daily

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