High yield reports are expected for soybeans, but traders need to see USDA report

October 11, 2016 4:02AM CDT

November soybeans have remained in a choppy trading range market since July 25 th as massive demand has been met with a steady increase in supply expectations.  We see another leg down starting with the USDA reports tomorrow.  The market set back from early highs yesterday and settled lower on the day.  There is a continuation of great harvest weather for the entire Midwest over the next few days, although there are some rain chances showing up in the Delta region later this week.  South American forecast have plenty of rain chances; in fact, some areas in Southern Brazil could see up to 3-5 inches.  There continues to be reports of “well above previous record high yields” coming in for soybeans and the market seems to want to see it in print, not speculation.  There also is some concern that even with a bearish report, the market will find support because of the large put option interest in November from 960-900 strikes.  If demand is not adjusted higher and 300,000 acres are added to the harvested area and yield jumps to 52.6 bushels/acre, ending stocks could end up at a near record 547 million bushels, up from 195 million bushels last year.  A close under 9516 for November soybeans would break the minor uptrend channel and a close under support at 9494 would leave 918 as next target.

Soybeans Daily

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