Beware USDCAD Vulnerability from Upper Range Constraint

December 29, 2016 2:08AM CST

As a direct result of the past couple days' resumed rally above last Fri's 1.3559 high, the 240-min chart below shows that the market has identified Mon's 1.3473 low as the latest smaller-degree corrective low and new short-term risk parameter it needs to sustain gains above to avoid confirming a bearish divergence in momentum and breaking the recent uptrend from 14-Dec's 1.3082 low.  This admittedly tight but objective risk parameter may come in handy given the market's proximity to the past month-and-a-half's range cap defined by 14-Nov's 1.3591 high.

Canada Daily

Canada Daily

If there's a time and place for this market to "fail" and expose at least a slightly larger-degree correction of this month's rally, we believe it is here and now, with a failure below 1.3473 exposing such.  Contributing to such a peak/reversal-threat prospect is the past couple weeks' relapse in the Bullish Consensus ( measure of market sentiment shown in the weekly chart below.  At 28%, the Bullish Consensus accorded the CAD futures is the most bearish it's been since Feb and would certainly warn of downside vulnerability in the USD if it cannot sustain recent gains above 1.3473.

It may also prove notable down the road that the upper-1.35-handle that has capped this market for the past month-and-a-half is also home to the (1.3575) 50% retrace of Jan-May's 1.4691 - 1.2460 collapse.  As far as breaking the broader recovery from May's 1.2460 low however, the market is still required to break 14-Dec's 1.3082 larger-degree corrective low and key long-term risk parameter.

These issues considered, a bullish policy remains advised for both short- and longer-term traders with a failure below 1.3473 required to defer or threaten this call enough for all traders to move to a neutral-to-cautiously-bearish policy ahead of what would then be expected to be at least a larger-degree correction of Dec's rally from 1.3082 and possibly a more significant peak/reversal environment.  In lieu of such sub-1.3473 weakness the trend remains arguably up on all practical scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration.

Canada Weekly

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