Let’s take a look at February gold from a technical perspective to start. Gold has seen quite a rally from the lows back in December around 1,127. Right now, as of Friday, the MACD is about to cross to the downside indicating a reversal in trend. Couple this with a trend that was broken on Wednesday as shown on my chart below. We are right up against the 50-day moving average at 1,178, and this coincides with the 38% retracement level. If we are unable to hold this level look for a test of the 50% retracement level at 1,170, and 62% retracement at 1,160. To give the gold bulls some reassurance, we had in fact formed a double top recently, were very much overbought, and in my opinion due for a bit of a pullback. The question is, when do you jump back in and position yourself for a rally? I believe 1,170 is the support level to watch, and structure a trade from this level. Feel free to contact me for more information on how to play this from a bullish or bearish perspective.
From a fundamental perspective, Feb gold has been under pressure from a continued surge in the US stock market, and little market fear to give the precious metals reason to rally. Traders are watching the rising tensions between the US and Mexico, as a potential to cause some panic in the stock market and this flock to the safe haven precious metal. Today, traders are closely watching how gold will trade following poor GDP growth of 1.9%, as the consensus was 2.2% for Q4. Durable goods orders came in well below expectations this quarter with defense aircraft order downsizing being the main culprit. Durable goods came in at -0.4% with a consensus of +2.6% expected. Gold is currently holding in the 1,180 range on the poor economic news. I can be reached directly at 312-373-5383 for more information on how to play the Gold market.
Market Strategist II
Josh began his career in May of 2013 after graduating from Purdue University, West Lafayette. He received a degree in Agricultural Economics, with a Certificate in Entrepreneurship. He started at Paragon Investments in Kansas, the heart of wheat country. While working there he developed long term relationships with corn, soybean, and wheat producers, speaking with them on a weekly basis. His goal was to market their physical production more effectively through tracking basis, as well as hedge their exposure in the grain and cattle markets through a variety of futures and option strategies. He then moved to Florida to work for PFL Petroleum, a physical biofuels brokerage, and gained significant exposure to OTC and physical energy markets. Trading has been a passion from day one of his career. In his free time he stays active in downtown Chicago, attends sporting events, and holds an FAA Private Pilot’s License and flies Cirrus and Cessna aircraft regularly.