An indicator, or superstition? | RJO Futures

February 6, 2017 9:51AM CST

It's the day after a thrilling comeback win and record-breaking fifth championship title for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.  Do these results hold any clairvoyant powers to what the market will do for the remainder of the year? A New York Times sportswriter thought so, and in 1978 he introduced his theory.  80% of the time it does make a difference.  AFC Conference wins create bearish markets, while NFC wins signal bullish markets. The Patriots, an AFC team, took home the Lombardi, which indicates that we could likely be headed for a bearish market in 2017.  The biggest exception came in 2008 when, despite the bullish indicator with a New York Giants (NFC) win, the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns since the Great Depression. 

When trading, an investor looks for patterns in repetitive cycles and solid indicators before picking a direction.  This indicator is a fun and interesting take on historical patterns.  What do you think?

 

S&P 500 Performance Over the Last 10 Super Bowls 

Year

Winner

League

Conference

S&P 500 Price Return

Prediction

2016

Denver Broncos 

AFL

AFC

11.24%

Wrong

2015

New England Patriots 

AFL

AFC

-0.69%

Right

2014

Seattle Seahawks 

Expansion team

NFC

12.39%

Right

2013

Baltimore Ravens 

Expansion team

AFC

26.39%

Wrong

2012

New York Giants 

NFL

NFC

11.68%

Right

2011

Green Bay Packers

NFL

NFC

-1.12%

Wrong 

2010 

New Orleans Saints

NFL

NFC

11.00%

Right 

2009

Pittsburg Steelers 

NFL

AFC

19.67%

Right

2008

New York Giants 

NFL

NFC

-37.58%

Wrong 

2007

Indianapolis Colts 

NFL

AFC

3.65%

Right

 

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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.