Cocoa, Cocoa and More Cocoa | RJO Futures

March 1, 2017 3:35PM CST

ICCO projects global cocoa production will hit 4.55 million tonnes, Ivory Coast has a record crop of 1.9 million tonnes and cocoa surplus hits a six-year high – you can’t get more bearish than that. With a steady increase in production the past year and very little demand, futures have not been able to turn around. A once bullish chart has little hope of a recovery at this point. Traders will monitor grindings for some direction moving forward. Europe and North American grindings are not expected to help the trade. Asian demand may give slight hikes in prices but will not be enough support to carrier the market higher. The fundamentals have not offered us any volatility and the technical haven’t been of much help either. 1890 is still support in the May contract for traders looking to buy on dips. A breakout above 1950 is needed to have cocoa head back to 2000. The range created in the second half of February will need to be met and broken to create any long-term change in the market from a technical standpoint.


Cocoa Daily Chart

RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.