Recent Rejection Confirms Neutral Environment in Bonds

March 1, 2017 9:27AM CST

Despite closing last week on a relatively positive note, the bond market finds itself on the defensive once again following a rejection from the upper end of the recent consolidation range.  Yesterday’s rejection from the 153’10 – 154’00 resistance area was confirmed by further declines this morning in the wake of President Trump’s address to Congress.  US Equity markets continue to soar to new all-time highs and the probability of a March interest rate hike doubled overnight.  So long as the market doesn’t produce a close above 154’00, the directional bias appears to remain neutral-to-negative in the 30-yr bond market, especially in light of recent events.  The recent swing up in price, which produced a relatively lower high on the chart, corresponds with a relatively higher high in the RSI indicating that the market was “more overbought” at a lower price level.  This signal could allude to potential weakness in the market and, sure enough, the market hosted a fierce rejection from the range extreme and now finds itself trading more than two handles lower.  Given the monetary policy outlook provided by the FED, an argument could be made for further sideways to negative price action in the 30-yr bond market going forward.  Technical structure can be seen from 149’08 – 149’23 below the market, which could serve as an initial downside target for the current negative momentum.  

 

30yr 60 min Chart

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