Big Brazil Crop is the Focus for Soybeans USDA Update on Thursday | RJO Futures

March 7, 2017 11:27AM CST

Some drier weather in Brazil is helping to boost truck traffic to the ports.  FC stone pegged Brazil production at 109 million tonnes this morning which is 5 million above the USDA from speculators.  This would be up 12.5 mmt from last year and could significantly slow US exports ahead.  Trend following fund traders were holding a net long position of 107,370 contracts as of February 28th.  US ending stocks are estimated at 418 million bushels in a range of 400 to 444 million bushels.  We look for ending stocks to come in at 430 million bushels.  As of February 28th, the managed money category in the COT report was long 131,756 contracts, down 22,731 contracts from the previous week and the long liquidation selling trend is a bearish short-term force.  The same category decreased their net length in soybean oil by 17,852 contracts to 27,046 contracts.  Weekly export inspections for soybeans came in at 921,779 tonnes versus estimates 550,000 to 750,000 tonnes.  As of March 2nd, cumulative soybean export inspections for the 2016-2017 marketing year have reached 79.4% of the USDA forecast versus a 5-year average of 81%.  Resistance comes in at 10412.

Soybeans May17 Daily Chart

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