Fundamentals or Technicals Leading Cocoa Comeback?

March 15, 2017 2:58PM CDT

May cocoa has attempted a comeback this trading week. Looking at a daily chart, 2050 is an important level – it has been hit three times of late. 2065 and 2080 are also levels to monitor, and Wednesday’s high was 2079. Between the technicals and the fundamentals, this contract should be trading around 2200. Fundamentally, reports out of Ivory Coast are anticipating a decrease in port arrivals in the short-term. Mid-crop harvest may not be as good as once expected, beans/pods may be damaged from sitting around and not being purchased. When the large crop came in, we saw a lack of storage space leading to a crop quality decline. The weather has also played a part in this recent small rally; the question is will it have a negative effect on production in the long-term? The COT may give us another push up this week - multi-year highs in speculative shorts, oversold levels, low prices, all are reasons we can see buyers re-entering the market.

 

May Cocoa Daily Chart

 


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