Expect the USD to Continue to Slide on its Charts | RJO Futures

March 17, 2017 8:34AM CDT

June Dollar:  With the dollar falling below parity in the early going today, it would appear that the sell the fact reaction to the Fed remains in motion.  However, we would expect the dollar to find some support from what could be a clean sweep of positive US scheduled data.  At least in the near term the trade appears to think the next rate hike could be difficult to engineer quickly without a noted progression in US data.  Near term downside targeting in the June Dollar index is seen at 99.79 and to turn the tide back in favor of the bull camp probably requires a recovery back above 10020

June Dollar Index Daily Chart

 

 

June Euro: With the euro set to end the week on a very strong note, it would appear that the currency is respecting the usual buy the rumor/sell the fact reaction to the latest Fed action.  In fact, with another range up extension and the highest euro trade since February 6th sentiment appears to be embracing veiled threats of rising rates in the euro zone.  Some might suggest the prospect of a European hike is more a function of a desire to get away from zero/negative rates than a sign of prowess in the European economy.  In other words, the odds of a mechanical adjustment in European rates are higher than the trade was anticipating two weeks ago.  Initial support is seen at 10812 and there might not be much in the way of resistance until 10835.

June Euro Daily Chart

 

 

June Yen: The move by China to hike interest rates combined with the US rate hike earlier this week and talk of the prospect of a hike in European rates has probably stalled the rally in the yen.  Initial support in the June Yen this morning is seen at 8843 but a rise above 8875 could put the bull camp right back in control.

June Yen Daily Chart

 

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