May Soybean Slide | RJO Futures

March 21, 2017 3:55PM CDT

The supply fundamentals remain historically bearish and any minor demand news which is less than impressive might spark another round of long liquidation selling.  The USDA Foreign Agriculture service believes that China poultry production could slide to 11 million tonnes this year from 12.3 million in 2016 due to bird flu issues.  This could reduce meal demand and hurt crush margins.  May soybeans have settled between 1001 and 998 over the last 5 sessions. The market has either found value or is really getting coiled up for a big move.  The Brazilian Real traded to its highest value since February 23 and was a negative feature yesterday.  Brazilian soybean processor group Abiove raised their soybean production number to 111 million tonnes, up from 107.8 million last month.  With size of the Brazilian crop continuing to swell and Chinese crush margins staying negative, the Chinese buying pace has slowed over the last two weeks.  May soybeans are hovering at the 1000 level waiting for fresh inputs.  The sheer size of the South American production on top of an acreage number that could approach 90 million acres and a March 1 stocks figure that could be 150 million larger than last year’s 1.531 billion bushels makes it difficult for the bull camp.  May resistance comes in at 1012 with 9854 as next support.

 

May Soybeans Daily Chart

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