Corn oversold and in need of a short-term bounce

March 28, 2017 9:30AM CDT

The market is trying to break a streak of six consecutive days of losses, building off of yesterday’s solid inspection number which was up 15% from last week, and up 57% from last year’s inspection number.  May corn traded to a low of 3542 yesterday and has closed lower for six consecutive days.  This is the lowest the market has traded since December 30.  The Dalian corn futures were up again this morning on a continued stock reduction program, which has corn planted acreage moving lower.  Heilongjiang province will lower corn area by 1.6 million acres this year after last year’s 3.2 million reduction.  Mexican Deputy Minister, Jaun Carlos Baker stated he is optimistic that an agreement will be struck soon with Brazil and possibly Argentina with zero tariffs.  The average estimate for corn acreage is 90.9 million compared to the USDA outlook board at 90 million.  The average estimate for March 1 stocks is 8.543 billion bushels, up 721 million from last year.  Weekly export inspections for corn came in at 1,556,091 tonnes versus trade estimates of 1.2-1.5 million and compared to 1.368 million tonnes last week.  December corn could be trying to put in a short term low at 3782 with 3852 as next upside target.

 

May Corn Daily Chart


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