Gold Bull Reaffirmed, New S-T Risk Level Identified

April 7, 2017 8:24AM CDT

Today's breakout over the past five weeks' resistance ranging from 1261 to 27-Feb's key 1264.9 initial counter-trend high reaffirms our broader bullish count introduced in 15-Mar's Technical Blog and leaves Wed's 1245.4low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low it now needs to fail below to stem the bull and expose a correction or reversal lower.  In this regard 1245.4 becomes our new short-term risk parameter from which a still-advised bullish policy can be objectively rebased and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.

Gold 240 min Chart

Gold Daily Chart

Today's breakout over the past five weeks' resistance ranging from 1261 to 27-Feb's key 1264.9 initial counter-trend high reaffirms our broader bullish count introduced in 15-Mar's Technical Blog and leaves Wed's 1245.4low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low it now needs to fail below to stem the bull and expose a correction or reversal lower.  In this regard 1245.4 becomes our new short-term risk parameter from which a still-advised bullish policy can be objectively rebased and managed by shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.Gold Weekly Chart

Traders are reminded of our very long-term count that contends a MAJOR BASE/reversal count from Dec'15's 1045.4 low shown in the monthly log scale chart below.  Early-2016's recovery above 1308 confirmed a bullish divergence in MONTHLY momentum that defined Dec'15's 1045.4 low as the END of the 5-wave secular bear market from Sep'11's 1920.7 all-time high.  Additionally and as we've discussed since late-Dec/early-Jan, the recovery from 15Dec16's 1124.3 low suggests that that 1124.3 low COMPLETED the corrective B- or 2nd-Wave within the major base/reversal PROCESS, leaving this market poised for a C- or 3rd-Wave resumption of early-2016's rally to eventual new highs above 1378.  Today's breakout above 27-Feb's 1264.9 high could unleash the continuation of that bull and expose steep, accelerated gains straight away.

In sum, a full and aggressive bullish policy remains advised with weakness below 1245.4 required to shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines.  Subsequent and commensurately larger-degree weakness below our long-term risk parameter defined by 10-Mar's 1194 low remains required for longer-term players to take similar defensive action.  In lieu of such weakness further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected.

Gold Monthly Chart


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