We expect a USD flare to the upside that fails to hold | RJO Futures

April 7, 2017 8:57AM CDT

Dollar:  At least to start today the dollar appears to be catching a safe haven bid but not as large of a safe haven bid as the Yen.  While we understand the potential undermine of the USD as result of its military actions overnight it looks to generally be in vogue because of the potential for payroll gains that denote ongoing recovery.  However, in order to breach the 101 level today probably requires a nonfarm payroll gain above 190,000.  In other words, the number today has to be strong enough to spark realistic talk of a near term interest rate hike.  On the other hand, in the face of generally hawkish news from a fed member earlier this week, the inability to sustain gains on Wednesday that would seem to make the 101 level fairly solid resistance.

June Dollar Index Daily


Euro: An extending pattern of lower lows on the euro chart combined with initial preference for this week’s lows in the early going leaves the bear camp in control.  In fact the failure to see the euro temporarily benefit from German industrial production readings and from a slightly better than expected French industrial output reading highlights an ongoing negative fundamental condition in the euro.  The bear camp will suggest that French industrial output was contractionary, even if that reading was not as bad as expected.  While we think the dollar will be unable to hold large gains today it is difficult to rule out the prospect of a probe down to 106 in the June euro over the coming week.

June Dollar Index Daily


RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that RJO Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction with registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.