European Equities Begin Down Trend | RJO Futures

April 18, 2017 4:02PM CDT

We are potentially starting to see the beginning of a longer-term downtrend in European equity markets due to all of the looming negative sentiment and uncertainty in the Eurozone. The biggest factors that are giving the bear camp an edge on the near-term are Theresa May’s call for a snap election decision to hasten the Brexit process on June 8, and the French general elections that are coming this next Sunday. The biggest anti-Euro player in the candidate mix is without question Marie Le Pen who is also calling for a suspension of French immigration, which could without question further stimulate uncertainty and risky sentiment with regards to the sociopolitical tensions between the native European and Islamic immigrant population across the Eurozone. If no candidate wins a majority on April 23, there will be a run-off election of the top two candidates on May 7. Further evidence of caution among European investors is the recent rally of the biggest and most-heavily traded safe-haven asset in Europe, the Euro Bond. These factors are all pointing towards further downside movement in indices such as the FTSE, DAX, CAC, and the Euro Stoxx 50. Investors in foreign securities should play close attention to developments in foreign currencies as well as to the US dollar in order to be able to have another point of reference for economic health across the European landscape. It should also be noted that Deutsche Bank is calling for European stocks to lose no matter who wins the election in France.

 

Euro Index Daily Chart

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