How Low Can October Sugar Go?

June 28, 2017 3:22PM CDT

This week’s comment on the October sugar futures contract finds a market continuing to press for new lows. On the chart we see yet another weekly low shaping up. Wire services are reminding us that should the “risk off” attitude spread from equities to commodities, sugar is one of the markets that could see dramatic short covering. I’m not too bullish on that idea, as typically commodity trading funds need technical levels to be reached or breached for action to result. For funds to start covering short positions we would likely need to see the October contract trade above 13.93 and 15.55. That is not to say a relief rally isn’t possible as indicators show the market is well oversold. For any sustained rally to take place we would first have to at least close over the 18-day moving average, 16.03. The commodity trading funds are relatively more short than they have been in a long time. Same goes for the commercial trader on the other side of the coin - very long. Interestingly, the commodity trading fund category, where risk is accepted in pursuit of potential profit, is getting shorter on declining open interest. This could point to a downtrend in October sugar futures that is getting tired or beginning to lose momentum. We could place more stock in this idea if the price action on the chart didn’t resemble a hot knife through butter on the way to yet another new weekly low. One thing that did jump out at me from the wires this morning, I think it was the Hightower group pointing to a bank comment about sugar being below the cost of production. Sugar producers, much like cattle feeders will not let a little thing like low prices slow them down. But, sooner or later the economics will assert themselves and prices will have to go back up or at least stop dropping like a rock. Could owning calls be a good idea to take advantage of a relief rally? Looking at the chart, however, makes that seem like a questionable move and even the most aggressive of traders can wait at least until we see a close above the 18-day moving average to make a decision. 

 

Oct '17 Sugar Daily Chart

Oct '17 Sugar Daily Chart

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