Softs

Holiday Trading and Cocoa

Posted 07/05/2017 3:43PM CTPeter Mooses

September cocoa is trying to break and hold above 1950 – but hasn’t had any luck. With the US holiday mid-week, traders are trying to position themselves for the longer-term trade while keeping the lower volume and abbreviated schedules in mind. A large net spec short position in cocoa helped the market rebound. Higher Ivory Coast production has already been priced in the market so any “new” news is what the market play off of now. London weakness and a stronger dollar along with lower energy prices have pressured cocoa. The arrival data is playing a part in cocoa’s current state – numbers are in-line with last year’s data that was affected by El Nino. Heavy rain in San Pedro has affected paths to ports which has also helped move the market. This rain has damaged bridges and could affect exporting but the rain will be beneficial for the 17/18 new crop. With resistance at 1960 and 1995 we will need more demand news to break above 2000. Look for volatility and choppier trading over the next week.

Sep ’17 Cocoa Daily Chart

Sep '17 Cocoa Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.