Enough Heat in Northern & Western Corn Belt to Support Upside

July 6, 2017 9:23AM CDT

December corn is trading 6.5 cents lower this morning. Outside market forces are supportive with crude up 1.65% and the dollar lower. China futures are down 0.48%. There were 1,370 corn deliveries this morning with no strong stopper and this pushed to date to 6,552 contracts. The overnight precipitation maps have increased moisture amounts for the Midwest and eastern belt over the next seven days which is also pressuring prices. Still, the 6-10 and 8-14 day maps continue to show heat and dryness in the western belt, northern Plains and conditions in the Dakotas should continue to decline. The weekly Corn Conditions report showed 68% was rated good/excellent compared to 67% last week and 75% last year. The 10-year for this time of year is 68%. The trade was anticipating a decline of 1% to 2% in the ratings yesterday so the reaction overnight is no surprise and could continue back and fill to support levels at 387 to 391.

Today’s Market Ideas: December corn rallied late and closed at the highest level since early June. The overnight trade has pushed the market back into support levels and with pollination coming in the next few weeks, traders will not press until the weather threats subside. A close above 409 will open up for a run to 422.25 with support seen below at 391.5 followed by 387.5. If there is not a distinct pattern change in the northern plains, watch for the market reaching a yield above 167 bushels per acre, though that will be difficult. 

 

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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