Many of the drier areas of the western corn belt look to receive a good rain in the next few weeks and cooler weather is also a negative force. There is more rain than expected in the forecast for the next week as Nebraska, eastern Dakotas, northern Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin look to receive 1-1.5 inches with some areas even higher. It still looks mostly dry for southern half of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, but the dry region is much smaller than what the maps showed Friday. The 6-10 day forecast has below normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. The longer term 8-14 day forecast has better chances of moisture in the southern Midwest and from August 7-13 with below normal temperatures also. Friday’s COT data showed the managed money trader category increased their net long position by 2,145 contracts to 106,815 contracts as of July 25. The trade was anticipating a slight reduction given the recent break in prices, this along with the cooler and slightly wetter longer term forecast could pressure prices to start the week. The market should find support against last week’s low of 279 followed by old low at 374. We prefer buying breaks into these levels as opposed to selling the market down here.

 

Dec ’17 Corn Daily Chart