US Corn Crop Improves

August 15, 2017 8:55AM CDT

A bearish weather forecast and news that crop conditions are improving helped to push the market lower overnight, but support is holding at yesterday’s lows.  December corn traded to a 10.5 month low at 370 yesterday and settled 1.5 cents higher at 376.25.  The market did put in a friendly outside-day higher close.  Still, market sentiment has been bearish since last week’s USDA report and forecasts remain on the wetter side through the week with .5-1.5 inch rains over the dry areas of Iowa, Nebraska, and Northern Illinois.  The 7-day accumulation for Iowa is expected to be 1.5-3 inches of rain.  The good/excellent rating went up 2% from last week up to 62%.  The key states showed increases in G/EX ratings.  Illinois up 4%, Nebraska up 4%, Indiana up 3%, South Dakota up 5%, North Dakota up 8%.  Iowa and Michigan are the two key states that saw decreases.  The market was also pressured by the news that one vessel of 55,000 tonnes of corn was heading to Wilmington, North Carolina from the port of Paranagua, Brazil.  The 2% increase in crop conditions ratings is slightly negative on paper, but for the most part we feel the market has an increase in conditions priced in.  The market has seen solid closes the last two days after finding support near the 370 level and could be indication waning momentum to the downside.  Resistance is at 377.25 and 379.5.  It will take a move over 381 to improve the charts.  If 370 can’t hold, look for 362 and 357 as next downside levels.

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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