Is WTI Crude in a Battle Over Trend?

August 18, 2017 9:22AM CDT

In now the seventh straight week of crude inventory draws, Wednesdays EIA Petroleum status report estimated stockpiles had declined by 8.9 million barrels, keeping pace with the summer month demand on oil stocks.  Gasoline inventories did not show a draw, but rather remained unchanged on the week.  Crude being consumed by refiners to replenish the draws in gasoline stockpiles is to be expected, however no decrease in gasoline stockpiles may be an indication of refineries slowing production (and potentially their future demand on crude).

The same set of technical indicators that have been diving the market price over the last few weeks, including two Fibonacci measurements, the lows from July of last year, and the channel the market has been holding the last 4 months are still very much in play.  The 44.00 support from equal legs and 50% fibs on the smaller timeframe charts, which I mentioned in last few week’s articles, is proving supportive and may be signaling the bulls are gaining back the ability to defend their ground on the larger time frame. However, now that front month crude prices have failed to break above the 50.00 handle, the bears have a line in the sand to defend, and a short term high that will keep the market suppressed.  Last week’s rejection of the 50 handle, and the subsequent decline to test the lows of August (48.37 September contract) could be the key reversal and outside day the market is looking for to confirm a short term top (as was mentioned last week).

Resistance for this week is being tested into channel and Fibonacci confluence zone into the 49.00 to 50.00 handle.  There is an equal legs measurement at 48.80 (which extends to the 123.6% line at 50.00), and this level aligns with channel trend line resistance.  Support is likely to be found into the 50% Fibonacci retracement area from the lows of July to the highs of August, measured at 46.24.  While WTI front month crude can remain solidly above 46.00 it’s likely that bulls will see this as an opportunity to defend the market from testing the summer time lows.  In the medium to long term, WTI crude futures should find a support level where there is a confluence of Fibonacci support bands (retracements and extensions) between 40.65 and 37.20 (daily continuous chart below).  The bears are in clear control this week, and it’s their possession of the markets price action to loose.  Bears defended their levels over the last week, while bulls have a line in the sand this week to fall back to.  In a real world game of thrones, WTI crude will be burned.

Crude Light Daily Continuous Chart

Crude Light Daily Continuous Chart

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