No low in corn yet, cold forecast and smaller yield should support

August 28, 2017 12:59PM CDT

Outside market forces are failing to provide much support to corn as the impact of massive beginning stocks continues to hold cash values weak.  A supportive Pro Farmer yield estimate and a cool extended Midwest forecast may be enough to help the market forge a near-term low.  December corn closed down 2 ¾ cents on the session Friday and down to a new contract low and also closed down 12 ¼ cents on the week.  The Farm Journal final results pegged the US corn yield at 167.1 bushels per acre compared to the USDA estimate of 14.153 billion bushels.  The weekly conditions update this afternoon should remain stable at 62% G/Ex.  If we adjust yields to 166 bushels/acre and old crop stocks are revised slightly lower, US ending stocks would come in near 1.828 billion bushels from the current USDA forecast of 2.273 billion bushels.  The resulting 542 million-bushel decline from the previous year would make it the largest drawdown since 2010.  The market is oversold basis the COT report and a cold forecast is somewhat supportive.  Watch for a technical sign of a short term low.  If the market turns up from here, 366 is next resistance.

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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