Wet in the West Should Slow Corn Harvest

September 19, 2017 2:35PM CDT

The EU will lower import duties on Argentine bio-diesel following a WTO ruling. Duties are reported to be cut by 4.5%-8.1% from the initial rates set in 2013 of 22% to 25.7%. Argentina’s bio diesel industry will be able to sell the product to Europe again at a time when the US has just set measures to restrict Argentina’s imports. Illinois crop scout is pegging the 2017-2018 Brazilian corn production to 88 million tonnes down 10% from 2016-2017, and the Argentine 2017-2018 corn productions at 42 million tonnes up 2.4% from this year. The weekly corn conditions report showed 61% was rated G/EX compared to 61% last week and 74% last year. The 10-year average for this time of the year is 61%. The maturity levels are a bit behind with a 37% rating compared to 50% last year and the 5-year average of 47%. Minnesota was 13% mature vs. 41% average. This week should continue to see the western belt with an active pattern favoring Minnesota, Iowa, eastern SD, and Nebraska. December corn continues to coil within the 362 to 344 range.  Weekly settlements the last four weeks have been 354, 356, 355, and 353. A breakout from the recent congestion is needed, and with the managed money trader pushing the short side, our feeling is that a move above 362 is likely.  Support is 349 followed by 347.

 

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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