China Ethanol Plan to kick off 2018, should support corn

September 22, 2017 9:31AM CDT

Sinograin will offer 3.1 million tonnes of corn from the 2014 crop next week. They sold 1.75 million tonnes of the 2.1 million offered at auction today. Expectations of rising demand from corn processors have boosted Dalian futures market, as well as brisk sales results from recent auctions. Wholesale prices of Brazilian corn surged 3.1% yesterday which was the largest gain since January 2016, as prices are being supported by tight farmer holdings as well as the prospect of lower planted area in the coming season due to dry conditions. Brazil’s cash corn prices are up 9.8% on the month so far, while December corn futures are down 1.5%. Spain’s corn crop estimated at 3.75 million tonnes, down 4.3% from last year according to the Agriculture Minister. The market seems to face a tightening of global supply, and perhaps US stocks, if yields come in below the September forecast from the USDA. Global demand news, especially from China and Southeast Asia, looks to be turning more positive. December corn closed near unchanged on the session yesterday after a very tight 3 cent range. Harvest delays this weekend are expected out west including the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Nebraska. The longer term outlook has a drier trend for the entire corn belt into October. A slowdown in harvest for northern and western corn belt could help support the market today. December corn continues to struggle to consolidate near $3.50 level. If the August 31 lows cannot hold, 337 ½ becomes downside target. On the other hand a push over resistance can spark a short term, short covering rally going into next week's report.

 

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

Dec '17 Corn Daily Chart

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