Are Rains Enough to Wake Up Coffee?

September 27, 2017 9:27AM CDT

The initial dry weather that prompted a run up in December coffee prices has been eased by a solid forecast of rains throughout the key Arabica growing areas in Brazil. This should allow for a decent flowering period. The next couple of weeks will be key in determining whether or not the aforementioned rains will be able to satisfy the already dry region. Commodities in general continue to see more of a “risk-on” appetite, adding volatility to the coffee trade. Will strong US stocks continue to prompt demand? All eyes are on an uncertain Vietnamese crop, which will help determine whether or not this coffee selloff will find support.  

The near term support will be the September 6 low of 12675. If this area is violated, we should see a continued selloff back down to the 120 area. We’ve now seen 6 of the last 8 trading days go strong into the negative, which looks very bearish. 


Dec '17 Coffee Daily Chart

Dec '17 Coffee Daily Chart

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