Tighten USDJPY Bull Risk Near Range Cap & Waning Mo

October 10, 2017 8:47AM CDT

As a direct result of Fri's poke to another new high for the past month's impressive rebound, the 240-min chart below shows that the market has identified 29-Sep's 112.21 low as the latest smaller-degree corrective low it now has to sustain gains above to maintain a more immediate bullish count.  It's failure to do so will confirm a bearish divergence in momentum, stem the rally and expose at least an interim correction of the rally from 08-Sep's 107.31 low.  Per such we are considering 112.20 our new short-term but key risk parameter from which traders are advised to rebase and manage the risk of a cautious bullish policy.

Yen 240 min Chart

Yen Daily Chart

This admittedly very tight but objective risk parameter at 112.20 may come in handy given the threatening combination of waning upside momentum on a daily basis above and near the extreme upper recesses of the past seven months' lateral range.  Moreover, the weekly chart below shows the market still deep within the middle-half bowels of the past couple YEARS' range where the odds of aimless whipsaw risk remain high and warrant a more conservative approach to risk assumption.

These issues considered, a cautious bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 112.20 required to threaten this call enough to warrant moving to the sidelines immediately in order to circumvent the depths unknown of a correction or reversal lower.

Yen Weekly Chart

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