Possible rallies after US data/FOMC in USD: opportunity to sell?

November 22, 2017 9:08AM CST

Dollar: The short term technical vibe in the dollar to start today favors the downside but the dollar might be supported by Wednesday's rather active scheduled data flow. Unfortunately for dollar bulls on Wednesday, scheduled data will mostly be in positive territory but estimates call for the data to be less robust than prior readings. However, the dollar might be hemmed into a range in the Wednesday morning trade because of the early afternoon release of the Federal open market committee meeting minutes. We would suggest trader’s looks to sell a minor bounce off the early US data window looking to implement tight profit stops ahead of the meeting minutes release. Initial support in the USD is seen at 9372.

Dec '17 Dollar Daily Chart

Dec '17 Dollar Daily Chart

Euro:  While the headline coverage early Wednesday morning favors the long side of the euro, the trade has yet to completely let go of the internal political problems in Germany. With the prospect of decent US scheduled data, more risk on gains in US equities and political anticipation of the FOMC news later today, the path of least resistance looks to remain lower in the December Euro. Critical pivot points support early on is seen at 1.1728 and then not until 1.1709. To throw off the bearish tilt from the last five trading session, it will probably require a rally back above 1.1795.

Dec '17 Euro Daily Chart

Dec '17 Euro Daily Chart

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