Weak Technical Action in Corn Considering Dryness in S. America and China Demand

December 5, 2017 2:50PM CST

The corn market put in a bearish outside day lower close yesterday settling down 5.25 cents on the session.  The drier forecast in Argentina supported the soybean meal market yesterday, yet the drier and warmer outlook was dismissed by corn traders.  The weak technical action was primarily due to the poor export inspections which came in at 586,213 metric tonnes compared to trade estimates of 600,000 to 800,000 tonnes.  The inspections were at a three week low and are running 43% behind last year.  As of November 30th, cumulative corn export inspections for the 2017-2018 marketing year have reached 16.1% of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 20.5%.  Inspections of 1.04 million tonnes are needed each week to help reach the USDA forecast.  Sharply lower corn production estimates from a key Brazil trade house failed to help support the market.  Total corn production was estimated at 90.5 million tonnes down 16.9% from last year and compared to the latest USDA estimate of 95 million tonnes.  Poor export inspections pushed the market lower and settled with a pronounced outside day lower close.  The reversal up action from last week is in jeopardy after yesterdays close.  3532 is an important number we would like to see corn close above today to continue upside momentum.  Resistance is 356 and 359.

Corn Mar '18 Daily Chart

Corn Mar '18 Daily Chart

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