COT Report Shows Massive Net Short in Corn

January 29, 2018 9:34AM CST

Corn price is at the highest since early December and there are enough weather issues to pull the corn market even higher early this week.  If minor weather issues persist, especially in Brazil, the market looks set for a further advance over the near-term.  March corn settled up 1 ¼ cents on the session Friday which left the market up 4 cents on the week.  US exporters announced the sale of 125,000 tonnes of corn to unknown destination.  The US foreign Ag service estimated the Mexican corn crop at 26.8 million tonnes slightly higher than the official USDA posting of 26.2 million tonnes.  Brazil’s winter corn plantings were seen at 3.5% complete compared to 5.6% last year.

If the current drier than normal pattern persists in Argentina, production there could fall from the current USDA forecast of 42 million tonnes to somewhere closer to 36 million tonnes.  If flooding materializes, Brazilian corn production could easily fall by about 9 million tonnes from the current estimate of 95 million.  The USDA currently sees a global productions deficit of 22.2 million tonnes, but if the weather issues persist, this could easily become a 37.2 million tonne drawdown.

March corn has close in support at 3566 and 355, with 360 and 3634 as next resistance.

Corn Mar ’18 Daily Chart

corn_mar18_daily_chart

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