Strong Demand and Supply Uncertainties Persist in Corn

February 7, 2018 11:20AM CST

South Korea passed on their tender for 165,000 tonnes of corn, indicating that prices are too high.  Taiwan bought 55,000 tonnes of corn from U.S.  Typically when you see active sales on a daily basis, you should expect to see strong export sales, which is what we expect for this week.  In addition to those “bull forces”, there is a threat of lower production from Argentina and Brazil along with a surge in demand out of Asia.  With a large net short position held by funds, these bull forces can spark a short covering rally if resistance is violated. 

The average estimate for Thursday’s CONAB report on Brazils corn production is 89.3 million tonnes compared to 92.4 million tonnes in January.  The USDA’s January estimate was 95 million tonnes.  The USDA foreign AG services estimated Brazil’s 2017/2018 corn production at 92 million tonnes due to reduced area for the first and second crops, and expects normal yields.

March corn settled at its highest level over the last 3 months.  It was also a bullish outside day with a higher close.  After trading under 357 (100-day MA) early in the day yesterday, corn rallied back to close above the 100-day moving average.  The 200-day moving average of 375 is not in play and looked at as an upside target moving forward.

Corn Mar '18 Daily Chart

corn_mar18_daily_chart

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