Weather Forecast is Dry for South American Corn, More Upside?

February 13, 2018 2:44PM CST

A dry weather threat for another week in Argentina and the threat of a significant downward revision for Brazil production should keep the short-term trend up.  March corn has settled higher for the last four weeks in a row with solid export pace and increased ethanol demand.  Support yesterday was due to disappointing rain totals and coverage in Argentina over the weekend.  This has led analysts continuing to lower production totals for the country.  Just 10-20 percent of the region saw beneficial rains over 50% coverage.

Continued short covering was seen last week with the managed money traders reducing their net short position by 48,018 contracts to 82,924 contracts as of Feb 6.  The open interest went down just 1,367 contracts on Friday, but the combined Wednesday through Friday open interest last week went down 61,000 contracts.

December corn settled at 397 which was the highest level since October 24th.  The $4 psychological level will be a big test.  Support for May corn is at 371 with 391 as an upside target.

Corn May '18 Daily Chart

corn_may18_daily_chart

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