Good Data will be Needed to Turn the Tide in US Dollar

February 16, 2018 8:44AM CST

US Dollar: While the US dollar was able to reject the initial salvo into a new low, the bias remains down with fresh damage done to the charts. Reports that foreign investors have sold US treasuries for the third straight month highlights the fact that investors are moving away from US assets and moving into riskier and higher yielding instruments. While the US scheduled data this morning might temporarily help the dollar, we suspect the March USD will see some fairly heavy resistance @ 88.83. In order to disrupt the downward tilt on the charts today, we will need to see a sweep of much better than expected data.


Euro: A big range up extension was rejected at first in the Euro, perhaps because the idea that ECB rate hikes might last longer that the trade has recently priced in. However, German wholesale price readings on a month over month basis, came in relatively better and that should reverse a recent deflationary threat from that country. A critical level of support for the March Euro comes in at 12465-12475 and the currency will need to break through the 12530-12540 level to extend upside breakout.


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