Strong Export Sales and Threatening S. American Weather are Bullish for Corn

February 20, 2018 10:43AM CST

With less rain over the weekend and Argentina expecting another week of dry weather, the market still looks to trend higher.  Although the two week forecast shows rain, the actual amounts of rain have been coming in less than the projected totals recently.  March corn closed over 5 cents higher on the week, last week.  This now makes five consecutive weeks where corn has closed higher.  Strong exports and bad Argentine weather have been supporting the market recently.

Safras and Mercado estimated Brazil’s total corn production at 89.5 million tonnes compared to 90.5 million previously and compared with current USDA estimate of 95 million tonnes.  The commitment of traders reports as February 13 showed non-commercial traders were net long 93,544 contracts, an increase of 94,895 contracts for the week.

With threatening forecasts for Argentina, too much rain for Brazil and some inflationary expectations, the trend looks to remain up.  375 is support for May, with 382 and 391 as next major levels of resistance.

Corn May '18 Daily Chart

corn_may18_daily_chart

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