Technical Correction Looms But Rally Potential Unclear At This Time

February 21, 2018 3:27PM CST

This week’s comment finds the May sugar futures contract languishing or maybe marking time. As of this writing the May contract was back down near the recent lows carved out mid-January.  Eleven days prior sugar had managed to surmount and even close above the 18-day moving average, a positive development. Almost as fast as sugar had arrived in positive technical territory, a near 45 point downdraft put the widely traded contract back on the defensive.  Since then the May sugar futures contract has eroded in price while open interest has increased with the trade shifting from March.  Volume has also waned.  Is it possible the May contract has run out of sellers?  This morning the Hightower group issued their daily comment and noted that sugar maybe “should” be trading lower with talk of another smaller surplus next year.  This is a valid point. While we may, yet again, be at a technical pivot, the May sugar futures contract appears to be holding up rather well.  If sugar is going to hold and advance from here this is where it will have to happen. Short term traders trying to catch the falling knife likely have stops below 13.15.  The May sugar futures contract is now squarely in oversold territory.  Fundamentally, I can’t see anything on the horizon that could be construed as bullish enough to sustain a lasting rally. That typically means a bottom is near. 13.57, where we currently find the 18-day moving average, and 13.96 the 50-day moving average are the two levels that loom overhead. A technical bounce cannot be ruled out. Aggressive traders could look to position for that technical bounce but remain nimble even if the market starts chopping into overhead resistance.

Sugar May '18 Daily Chart


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