EUR/USD - Range Bound

February 23, 2018 8:47AM CST

We received Eurozone inflation data in the overnight, and it slowed -0.9% vs 0.4% m/m and 1.3% vs 1.4% y/y.  This is in the wake of a softer German PPI reading (2.1% vs 2.3% prior y/y) and ZEW (Business Conditions) Survey reading of 92.3 vs a prior reading of 95.2 m/m and 17.8 vs 20.4 prior y/y .  For the time being our outlook on Europe and the Euro currency is tilting bearish.  A stronger exchange rate vs the USD is not exactly a boon for Europe’s exporting business climate.  If you take a look at a MCH Euro Weekly Chart we have been making a series of lower highs and lower lows for the past four weeks, but largely trapped inside a 1.25-1.22 trading range.  Technically speaking, a break of the low end of the range (1.2230), could drive the Euro back down towards 1.2075. The fundamental catalyst would likely be a more dovish leaning Mario Draghi as a result of weaker economic data.  For the time being, our recommendation is to manage the range of 1.25-1.22. The longer term (3-6 month) Euro chart remains bullish trend, but beware of a near-term correction higher in the USD and and softer economic data releases out of Europe.

Euro Mar '18 Daily Chart

euro_mar18_daily_chart

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