Acreage Estimate Lowered in Corn

March 20, 2018 8:26AM CDT

A noted crop scout has estimated his US corn acreage at 88-89 million acres compared to the last USDA estimate at 90 million.  They see farmers preferring cotton to corn in the southern belt due to high cotton prices.  Using 88.5 million acres and a trend line 174 bushel per acre yield, would see a measured decline in ending stocks for the 2018-2019 season. 

May corn gapped lower yesterday just below tend-line support at 382 and a gap remains between 382,5 and 382.  The market experienced the lowest close since Feb 23.  It was a classic risk off type trade yesterday with the market seeing long liquidation tied to trade concerns from trading partners worldwide in retaliation to recent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Corn demand remains robust with US exporters announcing the sale of 206,000 tonnes of corn to Japan and 115,000 tonnes to unknown destination yesterday.  The 50% retracement level of the entire move is now at 374.5.  Not sure which grain led the way, but the longs were looking to exit all across the board yesterday in the grains.  Support is seen at 374 with resistance at 378.

Corn May '18 Daily Chart

corn_may18_daily_chart

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