Yen Remains as Global Safe Haven Currency

March 23, 2018 8:16AM CDT

The Japanese Yen futures traded as high as .009613 (104.63 USD/JPY) in the early hours of 3/23 session, up 7% ytd.  Global equities were shook yesterday by simultaneous rate hikes in the US and China, S&P 500 futures traded down to 2617.00 overnight -2.2% YTD, while Asian equities, Shanghai Index and Jap Nikkei Index, got hit for -3.4% and -4.5% respectively.  While growth and inflation expectations seem to be souring around the globe, currency traders have sought shelter in the Japanese Yen while the dollar remains subdued and locked in a downtrend despite talk of further increases in US interest rates.  Despite it’s value as a safe-haven currency, set backs are certainly warranted from present levels as we triggered an immediate overbought condition this morning.  Furthermore, Japanese CPI (consumer inflation gauge) came in beneath expectations and runs well below the BOJ 2% target - which should grant the bulls an opportunity to book some gains.  On that note, we will look for further buying opportunities in the June Yen on pull backs to low end of its trading range/trendline support along .009500 as well as an ear to the ground in any major monetary policy shifts by the Bank of Japan. 

Recommendations: Stay bullish on the Yen, seek buying opportunities on pullbacks and be cautious heading into the next Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

Japanese Yen Jun '18 Weekly Chart


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