10-Yr T-Notes Reaffirm Secular Bear Trend

May 15, 2018 11:59AM CDT

Today's clear and impulsive break below 25-Apr's 118.31 low confirms our suspicion that late-Apr/early-May's recovery attempt is a 3-wave and thus corrective affair within our long-term bearish count reintroduced in 13-Apr's Technical Blog. As a direct result of this resumed weakness, the 240-min chart below shows that the market has identified Fri's 119.17 high as the latest smaller-degree corrective high and new short-term risk parameter it is now minimally required to recover above to threaten a more immediate bearish count. Per such 119.17 is considered our new short-term risk parameter from which a bearish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed.
T-Note Jun '18 240min Chart
T-Note Jun '18 Daily Chart
Today's prices mark new lows for the entire bear market from Jul 2012's 135.16 all time high. As a result, ALL technical levels of any merit exist ONLY ABOVE the market in the forms of former support-turned-resistance like the 119.00-area and prior corrective highs like 119.17 and 04-May's next larger-degree corrective high and key long-term risk parameter at 120.00. In effect, the trend is down on all scales with no support below the market. Further and possibly accelerated losses are expected in the resumption of what we believe is a secular bear market that could span a generation.

These issues considered, a full and aggressive bearish policy and exposure remain advised with strength above 119.17 and/or 120.00 required to pare or neutralize this exposure commensurate with one's personal risk profile.

T-Note Weekly Chart

RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that RJO Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction with registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.