Continued tough-tariff-talk seems to be the main story in all commodity futures this week. Although September coffee has been able to garner some support from less outside fears that have been applying pressure, but a bearish fundamental outlook should remain our bias. More and more coffee production and supplies continue to be the main culprit keeping September coffee prices in check. Primarily, the ongoing forecast that producers in Brazil may be looking at a record harvest ahead. News like this won’t allow a steady, falling market like coffee to put in a bottom any time soon. Let’s keep in mind that Columbia is also seeing a larger supply outlook than expected.

This week, September coffee prices were able to violate a very critical 11755 low from April 17of this year. Subsequently, we’ve seen some active follow-through selling and have managed to reach the 115 level, which is now our critical support area. Lower lows and lower highs continue to be the technical story for September coffee, and bullish traders should take caution.

Coffee Sep ’18 Daily Chart