Export Concerns Drive Wheat Market Higher

August 3, 2018 8:42AM CDT

It’s been a volatile week in the wheat market with a 60-cent range and a new concern about supply. Ukraine is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter and has planned to set limits for grain exports for the 2018-2019 season. This sent prices sharply higher and close to retesting last year’s high. Back in 2010-2011 we saw Russia (the world’s largest exporter) pull a similar move and institute restrictions on wheat exports causing another sharp move higher.  Technically wheat futures have been in a strong uptrend since hitting contract lows last month but didn’t give a clear upward signal until the July 25 breakout. Caution should be taken – buy the bulls if we see a break below 545.

Wheat Dec '18 Daily Chart

Wheat Dec '18 Daily Chart

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