Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso - 10/30/2018

October 30, 2018 10:12AM CDT

Bull and Bear Market

Trump continues to needle the Fed and their “hawkish” stance on interest rate policy, and to be quite honest, when it’s all been said and done, he’s likely going to look correct when we look back on “today”. It’ll be a big “I told you so” moment for the President. We’ve told you time and time again, the Fed is not proactive to cycles, they’re reactive, and we continue to view the market as a slow moving train wreck. Risk is high, we don’t have to tell you that, and with the mid-term elections around the corner it is increasing everyday. There’s going to be periods of massive rallies (bear market rallies tend to be quite violent to the upside), followed by periods of more “risk off”. We suspect these violent rallies are likely to continue to fail – which is why we think it’s paramount you utilize our trading ranges for your entry and exit points. 

What’s been the most disappointing thus far has been the bond market, even in light of a decent sized rally over the last two weeks off of the multi-year lows.  What’s likely going to get the bond market “going”, is when the October data is released in November.  Remember, we still have to get past a wage growth number in Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

Oil- We do suspect the oil market will begin to turn back up or bottom in the near-term as it is quickly approaching the low end of our range.  Iranian sanctions will probably be met with verbal barbs by the Mullah’s – which could scare prices back towards $70. 
Gold- We were buying lightly into yesterday’s close, and want to move to full position between 1220-1210 if the market gives us those levels. 
USD- Continues to press higher in the aftermath of eurozone gdp q/q slowdown – however, we continue to suspect the dollar is likely to encounter significant resistance at present levels. 

More to come as we move thru the week.  Good luck.

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.

 

RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that RJO Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction with registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.