Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso - 11/29/2018

November 29, 2018 9:11AM CST

Bull and Bear Market

Price is up, volume is down vs 3 month avg, and volatility is approaching the low end of my range with a heavy implied volatility discount vs 30 day realized volatility – I’m not in a rush to pull the trigger, but I’m warming up to it. I’m holding some opposing views in my head right now, which usually is not a good place to be – stay with the process. Our range has expanded in the S&P 500 following yesterday’s move – 2763 to 2622 is our strike zone. Trump and Xi this weekend – Trump has 2 rabbits he can pull out of his hat for markets, one of which was applying pressure on the Powell and Fed, which we saw Powell go dovish in yesterdays statements, and the 2nd is a deal with China or something in the form of a tweet suggesting a “super-terrific” meeting took place over the weekend. Neither of which was the reason we went bearish in September in the first place, nor will it be the reason we go back to bullish. Now we have a data dependent fed, which the Q4 data released in Q1 2019 should further confirm our view of growth and inflation slowing. This doesn’t end anytime soon according to our model, and we maintain a bullish bias on US Treasury Bonds – which by the way, many people laughed and scoffed at that call back in Sept. 

Oil- have we bottomed? Short answer, I don’t know.  We’ll wait and watch.  There’s clearly a supply side and demand side problem with Oil. Opec meets on Dec 6 and may quietly trim production from what we’re hearing. 

Levels to look for and act accordingly.  This is just 1 part of a 3 part trading model we use.  Instructions on how to use these dynamic ranges is listed below. 

Range levels:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

SP500

Bearish

2622

2763

VIX (Cash)

Bullish

17.20

23.20

OIL

Bearish

49.35

54.73

GOLD

Neutral to developing Bullish

1208

1236

10YR

Neutral

2.99

3.09

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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