Trend is Down in USD/Rallies Could Be Lookd At as Selling Opportunity

December 20, 2018 8:35AM CST

The USD is being destroyed as a result of the tempering of 2019 rate hike outlook. We are thinking the dollar will see more selling following the U.S. initial claims uptick, with the prospect of a temporary avoidance of a U.S. government shutdown giving little reason to bargain hunt the dollar from the long side. It seems like the USD has made a major top, as its distinction as a strong economy has been pierced with the Fed adding recession prospects by its rate hike. The USD in the last positioning report showed a net spec and fund long of 40,999 contracts and that would seem to leave a long liquidation as a force in the USD trade.  Resistance is around 9680 and 9695, while first support is at 9625 and 9580.

U.S. Dollar Index Mar '19 Daily Chart

U.S. Dollar Index Mar '19 Daily chart

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