Grain Markets Still Waiting on Trade Talks With China

February 15, 2019 8:42AM CST

The soybean market extended lower yesterday after export sales showed the largest net-negative number on record.  Although there is progress on trade talks that was supporting the market overnight, a China deal may support other commodities more than soybeans.  China has bought nearly 10 million tonnes of soybeans since December from the U.S. and additional buying seems unlikely in the immediate term, even if a deal is done. Two big cancellations on export sales weighed on the market yesterday.  807,000 tonnes cancellation out of China and 444,000 tonnes for an unknown, which is likely also China.

March beans are closing in on the 100-day MA at 901.5.  The market has not closed below this point since end of December.  Supports comes in at 895 and 892 while resistance is at 911 and 922.

Mixed signals from U.S/China talks pushed the corn market lower yesterday based on Trump possibly pushing back the deadline by 60 days.  This was perceived negatively as it hints that talks may be stalling and making no progress. Overnight, we saw a bounce because of news that officials will meet in the US next week.  There is a good chance that China could be a buyer of other agricultural products besides just soybeans as a good will gesture to kick off the new trade stance in an attempt to close the trade imbalance. 

March corn is up just ½ cent on the week and the trend continues to point lower from last Friday’s bearish outside day down.  Support comes in today at 372 and 370 with resistance at 377 and 380.

Soybeans Mar '19 Daily Chart

Soybeans Mar '19 Daily Chart

Corn Mar '19 Daily Chart

Corn Mar '19 Daily Chart


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