Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso - 02/25/2019

February 25, 2019 9:18AM CST

Bull and Bear Market

More China news over the weekend – Trump moved the goal posts on the March 1stdeadline in tariffs.  Chinese equities roared +5.5% overnight, cutting into the y/y decline and bringing it to -17% y/y.  U.S. GDP is released on Thursday – our research team is forecasting 1.69% Q/Q for Q4 2018.  Q1 2019 is being forecast at 1.7%.  So, if you’re still looking for a catalyst to the 20% decline in Q4, look no further than the cycle. 

You got to hand it to President Trump puppeteering the Federal Reserve and OPEC.  Trump was out this morning chirping OPEC on Twitter about Oil prices getting too expensive.  Oil immediately dropped following the tweet and sits down -2% on the day.  Good.  With our inflation accelerating call in Q2 this may give us some more attractive levels to position long of Oil – 55.40 is our bull/bear line with our immediate term range rising to 54.67-57.98. 

Side Note: U.S. Equities are signaling extreme exhaustion at present levels but with VIX sub 15 for now the 5th day in a row is not a good look.  Headed into GDP on Thursday will likely provide a set back for stocks but if the S&P 500 can sustain north of 2818 we’ll have to review our technical outlook as we approach the bull/bear line for equities.  Immediate term downside to 2686 with upside to 2813 = HEAVY

Good Luck!

Actionable Levels: 

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Bearish

2686

2813

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7256

7626

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.71%

VIX

Bullish

13.11

18.65

Oil

Neutral

54.67

57.98

Nat Gas

Bearish

262

293

Gold

Bullish

1318

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.92

97.25

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

USD/JPY

Bearish

1.0925

1.111

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.

 

RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that RJO Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction with registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.