Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso - 03/01/2019

March 1, 2019 10:42AM CST

Bull and Bear Market

We’ve had a lot going on this morning, so I’m getting this off a little late – by the way feel free to email me if you need a specific market range at any time and I can get that off to you quickly. 

What can say, another great day to be executing on the process of long bonds and gold. I just want to be clear – if our signal changes and suggests a change in our directional bias on any particular market, you will be the first to know! We’re not going to nail every turn in every market at every top and every bottom, so let’s not get confused here. Some calls we’ve made have been early, but we still have the data and signal that supports our bias’. Let’s not let our emotions get in the way of our quantitative and fundamental views of the market. Our model suggest in this economic environment (Growth/Inflation Slowing) – when bond yields are at the top end of the range you should be buying/accumulating treasury bonds, and at the low end of the range in gold (still bullish trend) – buy gold. If you’re looking for a momentum trading model that chases markets high and sells higher– this isn’t it, be better than that.  We trade the trend and buy on pull backs to the low end of our actionable range - which is based on price, volume, and volatility.  

Moving on…

We’re beginning to see lower highs in our daily ranges in the Stock Index and subsequently higher lows in the Volatility signal via the VIX.  15.00 is a key pivot point for the cash VIX.

We’re still interested in OIL, but from the right price of course.  Oil -1.57% this morning and we’ll look for 54.00 as a buy target for Oil.  Energy related stocks and energy commodities remain one of our models favorite asset classes moving into Q2 2019.

The manufacturing data slowed m/m.  And we still firmly believe the biggest move to capitalize on this week into next is bonds as yields have moved to 2.75%. 

Here’s the daily chart of the TNX – Tracking Bond Yields – Maybe this gives you a better view of whats been happening with Interest rates since everybody bought the highs in yields (sold the lows in Bonds).

10-Yr Treasury Index

Actionable Ranges:

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

 

 

 

 

SP500

Neutral

2716

2810

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7351

7585

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.61%

2.74%

VIX

Neutral

13.41

18.19

Oil

Neutral

54.33

58

Nat Gas

Bearish

2.62

2.91

Gold

Bullish

1308

1352

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.62

9702

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.12

1.14

USD/JPY

Bullish

1.1

1.12

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

Also, be sure you sign up for our exclusive RJO Futures PRO simulated demo account here.

RJO Futures PRO Simulated Account includes:

  • -$100K simulated trading capital
  • -Live Streaming Quotes and Charts to help you test out your trading abilities in real-time.
  • -Access to our Professional Trading Desk for advice and free daily research.

 

RJO Futures | 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1200 | Chicago, Illinois 60606 | United States
800.441.1616 | 312.373.5478

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that RJO Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of RJO Futures and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by RJO Futures Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction with registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.