Futures Market Insight w/John Caruso - 03/04/2019

March 4, 2019 11:08AM CST

Bull and Bear Market

U.S./China trade resolution is blowing in the wind….but this is not your new bull market catalyst.  It’s been “buy the rumor” the entire year, and without that rumor/catalyst – all that we’re left with is the economic data and sorry to say….IT’S SLOWING.  Great day to be in there accumulating bonds and gold. For my “chartist’s” out there, I don’t doubt there’s been some damage to both charts (gold and bonds), but if you're truly about the process, you’re in there buying.  I want to reiterate this again because many people take our analysis since the midway point of 2018 as doom and gloom and economic calamity …..WE DO NOT SEE AN ONCOMING ECONOMIC RECESSION.  We see a sequential slowdown in growth and earnings over the next 2 quarters.  And once again, if you’re truly about our process you’re buying markets that are bullish trend at the low end of our range and selling them at the top end of our range.  The market has NEVER recorded new all time highs when the growth component is DECELERATING.  Never. 

Breakdown:

S&P 500 encounters a massive traffic jam of resistance.  If we close above 2820 – then 2850-2875 are your next upside targets – Yes we’re at a critical level in stocks right now. 

Bonds- 2.76% was reached in the 10yr yield and it is overhead resistance for yields (support for bond prices).  IF for some reason the FED becomes hawkish again (we don’t think they will simply because they damn well know the cycle is slowing too which is why they went dovish to begin with), it will be another incredible opportunity to be in there buying Treasuries. 

Gold- Buying opportunity here.

Oil- testing a trend break down, thus this bounce is important this morning.  I actually expect a small downturn in Oil in the near-term – which will likely be a GREAT buying opportunity.

Market

Trend

Range Low

Range High

Notes

 

 

 

 

 

SP500

Neutral

2724

2816

 

Nasdaq Comp

Neutral

7368

7607

 

10yr Yield

Bearish

2.60%

2.78%

 

VIX

Bullish

13.21

18.18

 

Oil

Bearish

54

54.66

 

Gold

Bullish

1284

1354

Bull Bear Line is 1262

USD (Cash)

Neutral

95.75

96.96

 

EUR/USD

Bearish

1.11

1.14

 

USD/JPY

Bearish

110.4

112.15

 

 

Feel free to reach out to John Caruso at jcaruso@rjofutures.com or 1-800-669-5354 if you’d like to get a 2 month free trial of our proprietary trade recommendations by email. 

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