The September 10-year note recovered after last week’s failure of support, although bonds have recovered to an area of credible levels. The feds strategy of avoiding inflation expectations slipping has proved to be a bullish factor. Another thing traders will be watching for is continued bullishness in the rollout of massive fiscal stimulus programs worldwide. The guidance that was given at the latest FOMC meeting further indicates more market volatility in the near future, as their forecasting of the trajectory of the economy and federal funds rate tend to be an indicator of this. The focus moving forward will be the September 10-year note and how it will trade given the feds ‘Range of Tools’ in play to counter the pandemic. The feds report came two days after the central bank kept its benchmark at a record low through 2022.
10-year, September contract has support 138’150 that it has bounced off before in the short term. If this level fails we can see a quick re-test of 138’120 which has been greater support in the past. If these levels hold we may get a test of resistance at 138’200, a break of this we may test a greater point of resistance at 138’225.