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April Gold: Is the Rate Hike Priced In? | RJO Futures

Posted 03/10/2017 9:25AM CT | Joshua Graves

April gold has seen quite the selloff over the past few weeks. It’s no surprise that the fed is all but going to raise rates next week. April gold is currently trading around 1200, with a recent low being posted of 1194. From a fundamental standpoint, the market knows that a rate hike has been coming for some time. The world’s largest gold ETF saw their holdings decrease by 2.67M tonnes on Thursday, along with weaker exports of gold to China being reported last month. There appears to be some news that the ECB is moving in the general direction of reducing their QE program. The general bias in gold definitely favors the bears at this point.

Let’s take a look at gold from a technical standpoint. Right now April gold has broken the psychological $1200 level. If you draw a Fibonacci retracement from the December 2016 lows to the February 2017 highs, the 50% retracement support level comes in right at 1195. Today we basically came down to this level and bounced off of it. The next level of support will come in at 1180 if 1195 is taken out. The real question to be asking is, how much more downside is there following the FOMC meeting. My guess is that there most likely is another $20 worth, if that much. There are ways to play the fed meeting in April gold and not necessarily have to take a directional stance. 

 

Gold Daily Chart

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Joshua Graves

Senior Market Strategist
Josh began his career in May of 2013 after graduating from Purdue University, West Lafayette. He received a degree in Agricultural Economics, with a Certificate in Entrepreneurship. He started at Paragon Investments in Kansas, the heart of wheat country. While working there he developed long term relationships with corn, soybean, and wheat producers, speaking with them on a weekly basis. His goal was to market their physical production more effectively through tracking basis, as well as hedge their exposure in the grain and cattle markets through a variety of futures and option strategies. He then moved to Florida to work for PFL Petroleum, a physical biofuels brokerage, and gained significant exposure to OTC and physical energy markets. Trading has been a passion from day one of his career. In his free time he stays active in downtown Chicago, attends sporting events, and holds an FAA Private Pilot’s License and flies Cirrus and Cessna aircraft regularly.
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